A short follow up to "Movies and the wisdom of crowds"

FYI, I’m working on the fifth installment of Optimize your life.  Look for that this week.

The latest results for the Da Vinci Code show it handily beating expectations…estimates now show it tracking at 77 million, when estimates had been revised to 60 million recently because of widespread negative critical reaction.  The Da Vinci Code is one of the movies that I marked as a “mega hit” in my movie list.  I’m thinking that critical opinion may be too isolated in its own bubble when it comes to tracking the marketplace.  Unfortunately, I don’t know what the estimates were for The Da Vinci Code were prior to this weekend.  I am curious as to how much the critical backlash depressed the estimates and if the reaction to the backlash was itself an overreaction.

If you take a look at my list of summer movies, I’ve actually noted where I think a movie is going to do spectacularly well.  Mostly this has to do with how much crossover appeal I think it has past the stereotypical male moviegoing segment of the population.

Of course, as one reader noted, this is all completely unscientific.  It definitely is.  I would be a fool to claim otherwise.

Still, according to my list, Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest is going to be absolutely huge.  Put Johnny Depp in a Jerry Bruckheimer movie, and the United States might as well hand you your own license to print money.

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