Fundamental vs relative (or positional) value in real estate

Two useful concepts to understand in real estate (or indeed, in any business) are the concepts of fundamental and relative or positional value.

Fundamental value is best thought of as “cost plus”or “cost savings”.  As in, if the land costs x, and the structure costs y to build, then the builder should sell it to me for x + y + z (z = profit).  Or, if I buy x, it will eventually save me y dollars.  This is the mode under which you purchase a bunch of screws at Home Depot, most of your food at the supermarket, and perhaps how you justify buying a new PC that will improve your productivity.

When we think of “fundamental value” in real estate, we most often see this used as a good  baseline of value in areas with lots of land and more remote locations.  Almost by definition, these areas have plenty of supply in the form of interchangeable homes and office space, limited only by the desire of the builders to build in response to demand.

Relative or positional value is much more complex.  Viscerally, it’s easier to explain the concept by working backwards from examples such as luxury cars, art, and jewelry … none of which seem to serve much fundamental purpose for going about your day … and yet all of which still sell like hotcakes.  That’s because people buy these items to appease their own needs for self-actualization or to signal their status to others.  In other words, to show off.

Relative or positional value in real estate occurs in “hot” areas where everyone wants to be.    At this point, we’re not talking exclusively about how much it costs to build somewhere.  We’re mostly accounting for the fact that someone else might be willing to spend more than you to be there.  Purchasing thus pivots towards the zero sum game … where there can only be one winner.  Charlie Munger calls this “the Rembrandt effect”.

Examples

Being able to buy real estate for less than fundamental value is a pretty rare situation, but it does happen.  In the case of Las Vegas over the past 5 years, it was literally like picking up a dollar for 80 cents based on fundamentals alone (with construction costs at 300 to 400 per sqft), unless you thought that Las Vegas was going to crater and blow up (I did not think that).  There are cases, like Detroit, where being able to buy below fundamental value was actually a symptom of much worse problems (an accelerating dystopian environment).  Obviously, you should avoid those scenarios.

Relative or positional valuation is what accounts for the majority of the pricing here in San Francisco, New York and other urban centers.  Business (and hence money) tends to concentrate in these urban cores.  Rich people want to be close to work, and they value the dynamic and varied lifestyle that a city brings.  Supply is constrained by regulations and existing structures, which stokes the fires even further.

Also, some hot vacation destinations are prime areas for positional valuation.  Ocean views are hard to come by!

In addition, one very important positional issue is simply that rich people like to live around other rich people.  Now, you may not think highly of the class warfare implications that this might imply.  But it’s hard to say it isn’t true.

In general, you can assume that people (both rich and poor) are willing to spend some percentage of their income to live in better, safer and more interesting areas.  It just so happens that this translates to a lot of actual dollars when the wealthy want something.

As you may have guessed, real money can be made (and lost) in areas where the valuation is based on relative and positional factors.  As positional valuations are based purely on the desires of a crowd, you must be very confident in being able to read the conditions of a market.  You won’t have an obvious and immediate “save x dollars” value proposition in front of you.

Location, current demographics, and future demographics are all very important positional valuation factors.  These are fairly obvious, and I won’t go into them too much right now.

One interesting caveat for buyers that I would like to mention, however, is the fallacy of incorrectly comparing two properties and equating their values by some amount.  For example, property 1 in prime location A is worth X, so property 2 in location B one or two cities over should be worth 80% of X.  Or “I get 30% more square feet for my money in location B, and it’s only a couple of cities away!  Let’s save some money!”

This is how a lot of people lost their ass in the last real estate crash.  There is absolutely no substitute for buying either in a truly up and coming area, or in one that has already arrived.  When money comes flocking back into a market, you must own in an area where people with money want to buy.  Or, you must do your homework and be confident that the area you are buying in is going to contain more and more of the positive positional pricing effects that are lifting the pricing in the best areas.  Period.

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Surface Pro 3 impressions

I got a chance to check out the new Surface Pro 3 at the Microsoft store today.  Most of the stores should have demos ready by now.

Overall, it’s a big improvement from a Surface Pro 2.

  • It’s surprisingly light for a 12″ screen with a more square aspect ratio.
  • Let’s get real here … 16×9 is a terrible aspect ratio for a tablet and the fact that it took Microsoft three product launches to address that is simply ridiculous.  The new 3×2 (15×10) ratio is good.
  • The kickstand works well at all angles, although it’s so stiff that you will be skittish adjusting it at first for fear of bending the hinge too far.  I still don’t understand why the stand runs the whole width of the tablet.  Surely with metal the material strength is high enough that they only need the stand around the edges?
  • The keyboard works better than any previous cover.  The extra hinge does secure the cover with extra stiffness.  But, the touchpad is still a bit too small and doesn’t seem to sample input as flawlessly and as often as a Mac touchpad.  Plus the keyboard always feels like it’s too close to you, making you twist your wrists to compensate.
  • The included pen is nice, although I’m not totally convinced how I would use it yet.
  • Performance seemed good, although the polish of the built in apps was questionable as usual.  In particular, IE looked like it was being upscaled.

The problem with this iteration is that the Surface Pro 3 just feels too big to be used as a real tablet.  I handed it to my girlfriend and we both agreed … it just didn’t seem friendly enough to use on the couch or lying in bed.  Maybe in a pinch, but, otherwise, no.  So you’re sort of left with a tablet that doesn’t quite get to a notebook level computing experience, and is annoyingly large if functioning as a tablet.  Bleh.

I’d like for convergence between tablets and notebooks to succeed as I would like to carry less computing devices on long trips.  But we’re not there yet.  The lightness and overall usability advances of the Surface Pro 3, however, shows that we are getting ever closer to the goal.

 

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The NYTimes Rent vs Buy calculator

One of the often pointed to resources when deciding whether to buy a home is the New York Times Rent vs Buy calculator.  This is a fully interactive web page that takes in many assumptions and spits out how many years, if ever, it takes to make buying better than renting.

While it truly is a great resource and one you should play with extensively, it’s not actually very good at telling you whether to rent or buy.  Why?  Because the calculation is dominated by the appreciation rates you plug into the rental and home appreciation fields.  Even a single percentage point can make a massive difference.  And so, yes … even though this tool can factor in everything you need it to, you still need expert knowledge to guess at whether the appreciation rate should be 4% instead of 3%.

Real estate is a highly property and location specific business, so the other sin of a calculator is that it assumes a lot of average things.  In the current market, if you are looking to buy, you should be investing in areas and properties where other people with money will want to buy in the future.  In other words, places that are anything but average.  One of my rationales for this is the overall trend of technology and globalization accruing more wealth to less people who can scale market efficiencies.

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pfSense is great if you want to build your own router/gateway

I’m pretty hard on my networking hardware.  For a few years, I’ve been quite happy with OpenWRT running on a WNDR3700 by Netgear.  Just the routing and gateway functions … I always separate wireless access point functionality onto other devices.  As I’ve mentioned before, I have been very pleased with Airport Extreme’s and Express’s as my wireless access points for a number of years.  They are not always reviewed the best in performance.  But they have all been stable, which is where most of my wifi experiences have gone bad.

However, when I moved to San Francisco, I realized we had WebPass service in the building.  The service speeds are mindblowing.  I measured around 500 mbps up AND down once (on the new pfSense based router, which I’m about to talk about).  Compare that to Comcast business class service at 7 mbps up and 28 mbps down.  I’m not even sure how fast the service really is, because I doubt if other test sites can actually keep up.

As is true in so many instances, when you open one performance bottleneck up, another one takes its place.  In this case, it was the WNDR3700.  Its basic routing speeds only ran up to 200 mbps unencrypted.  Even the Airport Extreme 802.11AC router I bought a couple of weeks later only seemed to get around 350mbps.  Encrypted throughput was the real killer.  I like to VPN home sometimes, and embedded hardware in a consumer class router just doesn’t cut the mustard.  I was topping out at 7 mbps upload.

So it was time to do something new.  The requirements?

1. High CPU performance – For the aforementioned VPN throughput and to make sure the full connection gets utilized when I need it.

2. Low idle power – This is still a router, which means it has to be on 24/7.  We want plenty of CPU power for spikes in utilization, but we don’t need to kill the monthly energy bill the rest of the time.

3. Stable and full featured – We’re not in Kansas any more!  With some of the very specific requirements I mentioned, no consumer level router is going to fit the bill.

As far as hardware goes, it was pretty clear I needed a PC of some sort, but a light weight one.  Routing isn’t gaming level intensive, but it appreciates performance on occasion.  As it turns out, Intel’s NUC platform fits the bill well.  Fortunately, at the end of last year, the new Haswell processor line … well regarded for its power efficiency … had just been incorporated into the latest revision of NUC’s.  I bought the Core i5 NUC … you can think of this as a Macbook Air equivalent processor.

For software, I went to an open source solution called pfSense.  Even though OpenWRT was stable, it required way too much command line tweaking.  On a PC, I had way more options to select from.

Now, the problem was that the Haswell hardware was new enough that pfSense wouldn’t install natively on the platform.  So I ended up doing something a bit hacky, but which turned out to work.  I simply installed Ubuntu on the NUC, and then using KVM, virtualized pfSense on top of it.  This required some detailed network interface configuration on the host to get everything working, but the important part is that it worked.

The second problem was that the NUC only had one network port.  Of course, any router or gateway is going to need at least two ports!  The way to work around this was to either A. Use a USB network adapter to add a port. or B. Use a VLAN capable switch to create extra physical ports from just the one port on the NUC.  As it turns out, the USB network adapter I bought was not stable under Ubuntu, so I was forced to go with the second option.  Luckily, this also worked.

This might sound like a lot of work, and it was!  But now that it’s all working, it works very well.  I’ve also gained the following features as a result.

  1. High speed VPN
  2. High speed routing
  3. Traffic shaping.  In my case, this means smarts so that one client can utilize most of the connection if no one needs it, but fair allocation if multiple clients are active.  In other words, one user can’t kill the whole connection for others.
  4. Very detailed statistics, graphs, and logging
  5. Both UPnP and NAT-PMP support
  6. Guest network support (in combination with VLAN’s).  Guest networks allow you to provide wireless service to guests without giving them access to your local network.
  7. Future proofing.  This hardware should be able to keep up with bandwidth requirements for a very long time.

Most importantly, it’s extremely stable.  If you have the time to tinker with pfSense and are a power user, I highly recommend it.  The one thing is that you might want to take a slightly less aggressive route and buy hardware that it can run on directly.  My choice to virtualize it is what added a lot of the complexity … although now that I’ve worked through the issues, I have more flexibility since I can use the NUC for other computing tasks.

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The best vacuum cleaner (for me)

Dust seems to be one of those things that just invades and clutters your home no matter how much you try to prevent it.  And while it’s a pain to clean it up (and believe me, I don’t consider myself very domestic!), we all have to at some point.

The characteristics of a good vacuum cleaner are:

  1. Runtime – It has to last long enough to get through your cleaning cycle.
  2. Suction – It needs to have enough suction to pull up whatever you are trying to clean.
  3. Disposability – Throwing out a nasty dust bag can create a huge mess of its own.
  4. Accessibility – Can you pull the vacuum out and clean something up on a moment’s notice?  Will you have to find an outlet first?
  5. Size/Weight – it must be light enough to use comfortably.  A heavy vacuum cleaner can be not only unnecessary for the task, but also make you more unlikely to do any cleaning at all.

Based on all of the above, I settled on the Dyson DC35 (there are newer models now … the DC44 and DC59).  Why?  Read on.

  1. Runtime – 12-15 min on normal, 6 on max suction.  Enough to do a quick pass across 1300 sqft.  But it’s easy enough to use that we rarely do full passes.
  2. Suction – On the hardwood floors here, it picks up everything we need it to.  It is MUCH stronger than a dust buster and can easily suck up dust bunnies off a desk or in a corner without having to be right on top of it.
  3. Disposability – The bin simply pops open with a latch release.  More thorough cleanings can be done by disassembling the vacuum.
  4. Accessibility – This is one of the best features of the DC35.  A wall mount keeps the vacuum above the clutter … plus the charger slots into the wall mount so that you can “dock” the vacuum and it is always charged and ready to go.  Additional attachments hanging from the mount allow you to switch between floor and hand vacuum modes as needed.  And, of course, it’s cordless, so you don’t need to find an outlet for it next to wherever you are cleaning.
  5. Size/Weight – The Dyson DC35 is incredibly light and not an appliance where the words “push” or “lug” have to come into play.  You might not want to vacuum several floors with it, but it’s a great choice for cleaning up a single room.

In short, I think this is the perfect vacuum for smaller living areas.  The wall mount saves space, which is by definition at a premium to begin with.  The integrated charging keeps it ready so you can “clean as you go” instead of having to lug out a huge vacuum cleaner.  It’s multipurpose, so you can replace a dust buster and a floor vacuum with just one compact device.

My only criticism of this vacuum is that it requires you to hold the button to vacuum.  This is fine most of the time.  It saves on battery life, because you can just hold the button on the areas that need it.  However, for extended vacuuming sessions, holding the button gets tiresome.

Nevertheless, it really is the perfect vacuum for a smaller space.  And arguably, even a larger one too.  I find the ease of cleaning with it means it actually gets used, as opposed to a larger and more powerful vacuum that nobody wants to dig out of the closet.  Buying the slightly older DC35 may be preferable, since you can usually find factory refurbs or used models for $175-200.  Highly recommended.

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Real estate – one bedroom vs two bedroom

One topic of interest that I haven’t commented on my blog is my recent obsession with real estate.

Rather than going into a huge overview, I think deep diving on particular real estate topics of interest in individual blog posts will be more interesting.

So here’s a question many of my friends are facing recently.  You’ve got some money saved up, and you’re looking for a place.  You can afford a one bedroom pretty easily, or you could stretch and go for the two bedroom.  What should you do?

Well … in fact, the differences in the units themselves tend to be obvious.  I’ll outline those here.  The subtleties of this question tend to revolve more around your own finances than anything else.

Pros for one bedrooms

1BD’s cost less – Yes, we’re stating the obvious here, but it’s a big one.  Less sqft means you pay less!  If you don’t need more than a 1BD, why pay more? (There are some good reasons to stretch, actually, but keep reading for that.)

1BD’s can prevent you from overleveraging – Related to the above … if you want some real estate exposure in your asset portfolio, but you don’t want to overdo it, 1BD’s may be your best choice, regardless of how good 2BD’s are.  People who maxed out their net worth to buy a home took a huge dive in the wrong direction when the market swung negative in 2008.  Being forced to cash out at the worst possible time is very bad.

1BD’s are easier to maintain – Less square footage means you have less personal overhead.  Ask anyone who’s lived alone in a big house … it takes time and effort to keep all the rooms clean!  If you want to lead a leaner lifestyle, all you really need is a kitchen, washer/dryer, living room and bedroom (or a studio).  It’s natural and easier to keep the areas you use most often in working shape.

Pros for 2BD’s

You can get a roommate to help with the mortgage – Being a mini landlord is a great way to build your income stream.  And, if you rent out the extra room, you have the advantage of really being able to keep an eye on the place, ensuring the quality of the tenants and the property stays high!  Remember, living alone is an American conceit/luxury.  It’s not a human right, and you will waste a lot of after tax money for the privilege.

You can grow into a 2BD – 1BD’s tend to be transitional living spaces … after you graduate college, and before you start a family.  A family wants at least a 2BD so that the kids don’t wake up the parents constantly!  Transaction costs for real estate are quite high, so selling out of a 1BD into a 2BD because you need the space can set you back a bit.  This is why, unless you are a professional, I’m a fan of buy and hold when to comes to real estate.

You can maximize the mortgage interest deduction – Since 2BD’s cost more, you get closer to the magical mortgage interest deduction limit of $1,000,000.  There are a plenty of reasons not to spend more than you can afford, but, if your loan exceeds $1MM, you’ve got one more reason to hold back the spending.

A fully owned 2BD can be carried by renting just one of the rooms – Later in life, if you fully pay off a two bedroom unit, you can keep one of the rooms rented and use the other room as a pied a terre.  You’ll still make a bit of money each month (aka not be cash flow negative, which is a real no no when you retire) and you’ll still have a great place to swing by as you hop around the world.  It’s impossible to have that kind of arrangement with a 1BD, unless you have a VERY understanding tenant. 🙂

Dual income families can be more stable renters – With the premise of 2BD’s being more attractive to families in mind … if you eventually decide to rent out the entire unit, having two sources of income instead of one is great insurance against the possibility of not being able to come up with the rent.  Not to mention that, in many respects, having a family tends to correlate with stability and wanting to keep the place clean … just like you would if you were living there!

Perspective questions

Given the choice between a 1BD or a 2BD of nearly equal size, what should you get?

Go for the small 2BD.  The 2BD adds tons of flexibility, as mentioned above.

If you have a nearly unlimited investment budget, should you get many 1BD’s or many 2BD’s?

I would buy many 2BD’s.  At worst, you rent the rooms out individually like 1BD’s.  At best, you have all the benefits of being able to attract whole families and older/higher income tenants instead of just singles or DINK’s (dual income, no kids).  That’s a good segment of the market to gain access to.

Conclusion

I’ll end by saying that, in my opinion, relative to the cost, 2BD’s have a slight general advantage over 1BD’s.  The questions of personal financial leverage and commitment, however, still dominate the equation for most people.  Don’t spend more than you can afford, and don’t sacrifice other very high reward opportunities that your money could be in just to stretch into a 2BD!

But getting a roommate completely changes the equation in terms of buying a 2BD.  It can be OK to stretch the loan a bit if you are buying in an easily rentable area, because that extra rent coming in is offsetting your real leverage.   I highly recommend getting a roommate!

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Book Review – The Black Swan

I enjoyed this book very much when I read it a couple of years ago.  While lengthy, it provides a very enjoyable insight into the mind of a very intelligent man, and argues against some fundamental human biases and the need to incorporate knowledge of them into our own modeling of markets and other industries.

The fundamental notion of this book is the “black swan” … that is, the extremely rare event that one almost never observes, but which defines.

1. People do not think about “exponential” distributions correctly.  They are built to understand gaussian distributions (or bell curves, in other words).  Non-linearity is just not something humans perceive well.

2. We do a very poor job of imagining or accounting for that which we have never experienced or seen.

3. Many experts are anything but.  It behooves you to think at a macro level about just how “expert” or “knowledgeable” someone can actually be at something.  Be appropriately skeptical.

4. Scalable jobs and technology displace the “good” or “better” segments of the workforce.  Would you buy a CD of the 10th best violinist in the world when there’s a CD of the best one out?  These kinds of effects create massive winners and a bunch of losers.

5. We prefer to focus on individual and easily understood narratives and events over the true complexity and causation of such events.  The book refers to this as the “narrative fallacy.”  This is a valuable insight, and one that I have extended into observations and arguments in politics, the media, etc.  It is exploited constantly by the media by making the public react to statistically insignificant, but gross or absurd, events.

6. We have a preference for the constant and predictable, as opposed to the lumpy and big.  This leaves a lot of room for making money in lumpy ways, if one has the emotional fortitude and intelligence to make the right calls.

Definitely a good read.  I often think of examples in this book when I refer to different events as they occur.  I also gained more of an appreciation for philosophy after observing how Taleb weaves his way through different thinking approaches.  I hope I’ll be able to spend more time in that area of study someday.

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Review – iPad Mini with Retina Display

Introduction

The original iPad Mini was fraught with compromises.  A low cost product from a company that doesn’t like to make low cost anything, it was clearly built to fill a burgeoning niche being addressed by cheap Android tablets that Apple really didn’t want to exist in the first place.

The specs were underwhelming.  It used iPad 2 hardware on the inside – and the iPad 2 was already suffering from page reload-itis and general slowness due to the 512MB of RAM and a two generation old processor.  For a company that had heralded the era of “retina displays” in its products … first with the iPhone, and then with the iPad 3 and Retina Macbook Pro … it seemed like an unusually inconsistent step back to have a mere 1024 x 768 pixels in the 7.9″ display.

But in other respects … the new lightning connector, the remarkably thin new design, the camera, and more … it was bringing more to the table than even the full size iPad.  So much so that Apple felt it had to refresh the iPad 3, released only 7 months before, just to keep up.  So the iPad 4 was introduced alongside the iPad Mini.

And yet, the demand for original iPad Mini, in spite of the fact that its $329 starting price seemed to not even be competing with similar tablets at $199 to $249, could be described in just three words.  Sold like hotcakes.  Price mattered, and the product was good enough.

A Personal View

For myself, the iPad Mini was a reluctant “upgrade”.  As someone who actually carried the iPad around on a semi regular basis, the iPad Mini was looking like the thing to have. The full size iPad was a little too heavy and slippery to just carry around all the time without a bit of a death grip, and it was too big to put in a simple pocket.  If I was in a situation where I didn’t need portability, I would probably have a laptop anyway.

The Mini fixed those portability problems.  It was usable as a tablet, but still slipped into my jacket pocket or could be carried in my hand all day without the “death grip”.  The size was less obtrusive in public, and it was a much simpler matter to hand it to a companion than the full iPad.  It could easily be held in one hand like a paperback book and poked with the other.  It truly felt like I was toting around something akin to the Star Trek “Pad” of the future.  I even skipped the cover often because it added 25% percent to the remarkably light weight of the tablet.

And yet, I was reminded of the Mini’s failings every time I had to rotate into landscape or zoom in to see some text more clearly.  Or a web page reloaded unnecessarily.  Or a full screen magazine page in my Zinio app looked like a pixelated mess.  iOS 7, perhaps not unexpectedly, made the RAM issues even more prominent.  The iPad 3’s Retina Display  was simply still remarkable to look at and use.

So yes … I’ve been waiting for the new iPad Mini for a long time.  Like a student moving into a dorm for a bit, there was never any plan to get attached to the original Mini.  While its benefits were substantial, its flaws were also readily apparent.  I had always planned to trade out as soon as possible.

The details

Dimensions: The iPad Mini with Retina Display (heretofore referred to as the Mini 2) is almost immeasurably thicker (0.3mm) and 10% heavier than the original Mini.  The Mini 2 feels not so much heavier in the hand as more dense.  The dimensions, meanwhile, are so similar that almost all original covers and cases still fit the Mini 2.  Essentially imperceptible.

Speed: Leagues faster.  Mostly 4-5x in terms of CPU, all due to the use of the current generation A7 processor as opposed to a last generation A6.  This was an unexpected surprise for anyone expecting the trend of the Mini getting last generation hardware … although it was rather smart from a supply chain perspective.

Per the above, it turns out the “X” series of graphically enhanced processors required to drive the 2048×1536 Retina Display are no longer required with this generation of hardware.

Not to be ignored in the speed issue is the amount of RAM.  Web pages frequently reloaded on the original Mini and any reasonably intensive game would crash frequently.  With a full 1GB of RAM, the Mini 2 has run everything I have thrown at it with aplomb.

Screen: The new retina screen, with a remarkable 326 PPI, is a wonderful thing to finally have on the iPad Mini 2.  Magazines and other images truly look at home on the new display, if a bit small.  While it is much easier to browse full size web pages on the Mini 2 now, it isn’t always completely comfortable.  As I’ve adapted to the new Retina Display on the Mini 2 , there is a temptation to try and read many of these web pages unzoomed on since even the small text is so clear.  It finally takes some learning to realize that even the clearest of small text can still be uncomfortable to read, and that one should still zoom in or switch to landscape on occasion.  I can’t blame this on Apple … it’s just the form factor.

Much has been made of the color gamut of the iPad Mini … weighing in at just 62% (similar to the original Mini) and not at the 100% coverage afforded by the iPad 3 and subsequent full size iPad’s.  In a word, the “issue” will only affect those of an anal retentive nature.  Deep reds appear a bit orangey (if that’s even a word) and purples start to look bluish.  However, there is no functional reason this should affect how 99% of the world uses the tablet.

Apple may have had supply chain issues or gambled incorrectly on display technology for the Mini 2 … we may never know.  I look forward to a Mini with a better display, but I cannot think of how the current display is going to measurably displease me for the next year.

Like the original Mini, I don’t necessarily recommend the Mini for older users, or generally those who have vision problems.  The larger screen of the iPad Air will be a much better option for many.  The lightness of the Mini is no longer quite as unique due to the new iPad Air’s diet, and for those who don’t wander out much, the weight and size hardly matter anyway.

Price and Upgrades: At $399, the new Mini 2 is considerably more expensive than the original Mini. The current generation specs rather soundly justify the increase, although the lack of new product at the 300 dollar price point must be ruining some bean counter’s day at Apple.  Personally, I think Apple should always have bumped the retina display model’s pricing slightly on launch … or perhaps left out the 16GB version of it altogether.

What is more disappointing is the continued existence of the “100 dollars per storage tier” upgrade model.  We all know flash memory gets cheaper over time, so the persistence of this pricing structure over a number of years is starting to look like price gouging in the eyes of consumers.

Now, as it turns out, 16GB is probably one of those nice sizes where someone can still web browse and use a few apps, but any additional music or movies is going to require more space.  So I’m not sure Apple should upgrade the base storage to 32GB.  I suggest they remove the 32GB tier and shift the 64GB and 128GB down into place.

Another disappointing choice was the decision to keep selling the original iPad Mini at the $299 price point.  If you haven’t gotten the idea by now, the Mini 1 is definitely under spec, and on the brink of being obsolete.  At the very least, it should get an A6 processor in there with 1GB of RAM so that it has some life left in it.  As it stands now, you’d have to be completely ignorant to purchase the iPad Mini 1 over the Mini 2.

To end on a more pleasant note … the Mini 2 has an option for 128GB of storage, and all cellular models in the US are actually the same hardware.  So the Mini 2 is truly on par with the iPad Air in many ways, and the resale of the cellular Mini 2’s (or even just switching carriers) will be easier, as the models are largely interchangeable.

Conclusion

The new iPad Mini with Retina display is a remarkable tablet.  It does not compete on price with the new generation Nexus 7 or Kindle.  In my mind, it doesn’t have to.  If I was to buy a tablet for a gift, I might consider a Nexus.  If I buy a tablet for myself, it’s iPad all the way.

It’s a curiously pleasant, but unfamiliar, feeling to carry around a tablet that is virtually the equal of the iPad Air in everything but size, and still do it in such a portable way.  The Mini 2 addressed all of my complaints about the original Mini, and then actually went above and beyond by including current spec hardware.  I think the emotion might be best described as “blessed” … wherein you aren’t quite sure how you are carrying this amazingly good interface to the sum of human knowledge in the palm of your hand, but you are, and it is freaking awesome.

Unlike the original Mini, I won’t be looking towards the next upgrade so eagerly.  And that’s quite a compliment.

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Thinking in time-value of money

It is important to not let your old habits define your behavior today.  A great example that I’m writing about today for you is time and money.

Not everything is worth your time

Like a poker player sizing his bets or moving to bigger tables on the opportunities, you, in general, should be letting go of certain tasks as you become more successful.  As your earning power rises, your free time becomes more precious (and yet still very much necessary for one to recharge).  Consequently, small losses and gains should be ignored.

Here are some examples of daily activities that are worth the time to some, and not to others.

  • Looking for the best deal on a flight
  • Finding free parking
  • Sweating over the good/better/best models of something
  • Doing your own cleaning
  • Mailing in rebates
  • Hoarding old possessions and taking up living space
  • Rushing to buy something on sale

Youth vs Age

When we are young, we spend lots of time trying to get money …. either by acquiring or conserving it.  Our early years are replete with idle time, not many ways to work productively, and summer vacations.  In order to get what we want, we have to be scrappy at every opportunity.

When we are older, we spend a lot of money trying to get back our time (if we are lucky).  We pay people to clean up after us.  We go out to eat.  We fly instead of drive.  Suddenly, the tables are reversed.

Many folks don’t quite make the correct transition from young to old, or poor to rich. That’s a little bit of a tragedy.  They spend their whole life struggling, because it’s how they grew up.  While there’s nothing wrong with studious work and attention to detail, it is crucial to transform the nature of that struggle into bigger and better things.  Don’t keep running a horse race when everyone else in your peer group is now racing cars.

Evaluating time

Now, one way to evaluate how to spend your time is to compare your average earnings per hour towards the time it will take to do something.

If you make on average 50 dollars per hour, is it worth it for you to worry about returning the socks that didn’t fit after you bought them last week?  Should you be worrying about not buying that extra storage on your phone for 100 dollars more and possibly regretting it later?  Likely, no.  Buy the best phone, throw out the socks, and enjoy the free time so you can do a better job at work.

There’s an argument, of course, that you can’t really just go out and earn another 50/hour ad infinitum.  Most salaried jobs pay what they pay … though, on average, doing a better job is going to get you up the ladder.

Regardless, you will find that simply telling yourself to think in terms of time vs money will slowly make you better at it.  It’s not important to get every detail correct … just the big ones (like negotiating big ticket items) and the frequent ones (which you will have lots of opportunities to get right over time).

Sam Walton

There’s a famous story about Sam Walton, the billionaire founder of Walmart.  An acquaintance of his, knowing his reputation for frugality, once left a penny on purpose in Sam’s path on the way to boarding the plane.  True to form, Sam stopped to pick it up.

Was that the rational thing to do?  Hell no!  Sam was a billionaire, but that doesn’t make everything he did right.  By all rights, he ought to have paid someone to wipe his ass if it would have given him more time to lead Walmart.  But what it can and does go to show you is that Sam’s obsession and outlook were probably the source of his strength at Walmart and an imperfection in other ways.

We humans have a tendency to behave irrationally when it comes to money.  For example, studies showed that many folks would travel to another store just to save a couple of bucks on a box of pens that cost $7 at the store they were already at.  But then, they wouldn’t spend nearly the amount of time negotiating the price of a new car.  This fact will be exploited against you when you are making big purchases.  Don’t let it happen to you!

Money is not a sacred cow.  It’s a tool.

Playing both offense and defense with your money is important.   We all know what it’s like not to spend money.  But sometimes it should be spent!

A good example is multiple large monitors … a clear productivity win for anyone that works at a computer.  Spend the money!

Hiring an assistant is also a great idea for folks that are being overrun with minutiae that doesn’t move the needle on their main source of income.

Books (non-fiction) are another great way to get better at something (but don’t forget, practice is still number one).  If you even have an inkling that you might learn something from a book, buy it and read it!

The point I’m making is that trading small losses now (in terms of spending) to permanently improve your productivity (or even just a chance at it) is great.  Rational people will aggressively *spend* money to “sharpen the saw.”  Perhaps even more interestingly, a truly rational person will spend money just at chances that the saw might be sharpened, because the return on a increase in personal productivity is so high.

Investing in yourself

One clear area where I bend the rules, per the above, is that investing in your own learning or productivity is usually A GOOD THING, even though the benefits may seem unclear at the time.  Such expenses should be in line with your earning power, but they often earn unseen returns in the future.

For example, I spent quite a bit of money just learning about repairing cars, changing my own oil, brakes, etc, and driving a car at the track.  Was it a waste of money on the surface?  Yes.  But now I can challenge any mechanic that’s trying to pull a fast one on me.  I can talk capably with other car nuts, which has its own benefits.  And I’m a safer driver on the roads because I know the limits of the car more than most.

If I think a book will teach me anything at all, I buy it.  I might not read it.  But then again, I might.  I rarely take away more than a few key points from any book.  But my mental model of the world has gotten much clearer over time, and it would not have happened without those books.

Conclusion

What was the right approach to your time and money in the past may no longer be correct now.  Many people make the mistake of living the last half of their lives like the first half.  Your approach to time and money should be adapted to situations of today.

Not everything can be reduced to a dollars per hour equation … but thinking about it will make you better at filtering out the events that can be.

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Adventures in home WiFi

I’ve spent a lot of time struggling with different home WiFi setups.  I really can’t count the number of times I’ve had different routers go out on me or just get flaky.  But I’ve settled on a solution that works and I’m going to share it with you now to save the world some time.

Here’s my recommended setup.

For WiFi – Use Airport Extreme’s or Express’s as standalone WiFi access points by putting them into bridge mode.  Hardwire where you can and use identical access point options … otherwise known as a roaming network.  WiFi clients will roam seamlessly between access points with the same SSID and security settings.

Place additional Airport’s strategically with the “extend a wireless network” option to get whole home or yard coverage.  This feature works remarkably well on the Airport’s and is a very good way to cover an unwired home.  While “extend a wireless network” does impact total throughput, it’s far better to use it to improve coverage to eliminate dropouts than it is to worry about theoretical performance.  You just don’t want to use it instead of a hardwired ethernet port when one is available.

For the gateway – WNDR3700 with OpenWRT as the router/gateway.   All I can say is that I’ve hammered this thing with pretty much everything you can throw at it and it’s been very stable and full featured to boot.

If you aren’t a tinkerer and don’t need anything special in terms of home router/gateway features, then just use an Airport Extreme as the gateway and be done with it.  Excellent choice if you just want to set up the parents and not get calls about the internet being down.

Note that recent generations of the Airport allow for simultaneous dual-band transmission.  Defaulting to the same SSID for both bands allows devices to roam to the best band for the job … 5 GHz for increased bandwidth and less interference from neighboring access points, but a seamless fallback to 2.4 GHz at range.

The problem with using the same SSID is that the operation of what is going on is obscured somewhat.  When using iOS devices, you can’t even tell what band you are on.  So it is sometimes desirable to use the option that names the 5 GHz band with a different SSID.  This is useful mainly in situations where you want to test the explicit performance on 5 GHz with different devices or compensate for a dumb device that doesn’t know it should connect to 5 GHz over 2.4 GHz in your house.

I used to name the bands separately, but I recently decided to switch to identical SSID’s and see how it goes.  When I walk out to the elevator here, my iPhone won’t aggressively switch down to 2.4 GHz unless the SSID’s are identical, which means the connection just dies.  And, you know, tech is supposed to make our lives easier, so I figured I would try to have a little faith in them.  I’m almost all Apple here, so I have reasonable confidence that the devices will be smart about selecting the correct band for the situation.

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